A new poll of American women shows support for the Republican Party collapsing across groups that have long been GOP strongholds, with one pollster describing the numbers as a flashing warning sign for the party.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
The survey, conducted August 21 and 22 by Christina Matthews of Bellwether Research and Consulting, polled 1,604 women 18 and older. Matthews told Politico the swing among white women is the most alarming data point for Republicans, given how consistently that group has backed GOP House candidates in the last two election cycles. Married women, who favored Republicans by 22 points in 2022 and 13 points in 2024, are now split down the middle.
When I look at those numbers, I am seeing sirens.
Christina Matthews
What's Driving the Discontent
Majorities of women surveyed oppose several administration priorities: tariffs (63%), the White House ballroom project (68%), splitting the MMR vaccine into three shots (55%), new data centers in their states (61%), and expanded glyphosate production (53%). Just over half oppose ICE deportations, though 76% of Republican women strongly back them, a split that shows the erosion is concentrated among independents and moderates rather than the GOP base itself.
Asked to rank priorities, 38% of women named the economy and cost of living as their top concern, dwarfing healthcare and Social Security (17%) and democracy and rule of law (11%). Matthews said the pattern suggests women have noticed the administration isn't addressing what they say matters most, pointing to persistent grocery prices and gas costs as issues voters now attach to Trump rather than his predecessor.
More Context
Women have leaned Democratic since the 1980s, so this poll isn't a new phenomenon so much as a sharp acceleration. It's also not obviously an LGBTQ+ story on its face, and the poll itself doesn't ask about queer issues directly. But the timing is notable: Republicans have leaned heavily on anti-trans messaging since 2024, even as public support for gender-affirming care and trans rights has softened somewhat among the broader public. What this survey suggests is less a rush toward LGBTQ+ solidarity and more that women are tired of culture-war priorities crowding out kitchen-table ones. Lesbian, gay and bisexual women already back Democrats overwhelmingly, but the real story here is straight, married, white women deciding the GOP has its priorities backwards. That's a coalition problem Republicans built themselves, one grocery receipt at a time.
Source: LGBTQ Nation
Cover photo: Edmond Dantès / Pexels
